Real time system growth continues but information standards vary greatly
The provision of Real Time Information systems for bus passengers continues to grow at around 20% a year but on some systems passengers would be better informed if they ignored the information displays. These are two of the conclusions in the latest Market Intelligence report from consultants TAS.
Despite a large amount of research it is still not possible for bus operators to build a robust business case for real time investment although the case for investment in Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) systems, which can be used to drive real time systems, is much better, and now stacks up for most urban bus businesses.
TAS looked at 71 UK systems and carried out surveys of the performance of four representative systems for the new report, as well as reviewing past research. Beacon based systems have now been left with a very limited specialist role as universal GPS coverage has taken over, with London, the last bastion of beacons now catching up with the rest of the country. Four suppliers have provided 50 of the 71 installed systems and there is evidence of consolidation in this diverse market. The pace of technological change is resulting in abandonment of some early systems and conflicting technical standards in adjacent areas now present problems.
TAS Director Peter Huntley noted “this technology moves on so fast it is essential that purchasers think about the next set of challenges – moving from SMS and WAP technology to SHTML [a cut down version of internet pages] – so that information can be accessed directly by users. In ten years time the display at the bus stop may actually be the least important component of real time systems”.
Despite reviewing all published material on these systems TAS was not able to identify any robust basis for prediction of patronage or revenue growth. What is clear, however, is that passengers do value RTI, especially as part of a comprehensive high quality information strategy.
The problems of making accurate predictions of bus arrival time in congested urban areas were clear in the research undertaken. In one case the presence of three uncoordinated sets of traffic signals in close succession meant that predictions based on earlier journeys were just as likely to be wrong as right – resulting in constant changes to predicted times that gave the user no useful guide. Similarly displays close to the start of routes, on corridors where not all vehicles were appropriate equipped, or where there are ‘glitches’ gave unreliable predictions. Huntley commented “there is a common view that getting a real time system up and running is enough and very little checking has been done on the information that is delivered. This is a mistake and it is crucial that a ‘reality check’ is undertaken on system performance.
Where are we going on Real Time Information? A Market Intelligence Report was published on 23 May. The 60 page report is being distributed free of charge to operators and local authorities who contributed to the research and is otherwise available from TAS Publications & Events at GBP34.50.
ENDS
For further information, contact Edmund Tresham on 01772 204988 or Edmund.Tresham@tas-part.co.uk